As it continues to dawn on him that his belligerent and braggadocio strategy is failing miserably, Tshisekedi has now resorted to juvenile blackmail. Like he did incite Congolese against MONUSCO for failing to fight his unnecessary battles, Tshisekedi is now turning his guns on the East African Community Regional Forces (EACRF). Tshisekedi is building up anti-EACRF sentiments among Congolese in eastern DRC, blaming them for his failures.
While the regional peace mechanism is articulate and designed to use both military and diplomacy to work towards a model that will guarantee lasting peace in eastern DRC, Tshisekedi is working to undermine the regional strategy. Although the Kinshasa regime hoodwinks the international community to believe they want peace in DRC and are only victims of an ‘invasion’, Tshisekedi and his cronies have chosen the radical conflict trajectory. As evidence of this, Tshisekedi has engaged dangerous armed groups like FDLR, Nyatura, Mai-Mai, CODECO, PARECO, and APCLS to assist FARDC in fighting the M23 movement. When the going proved to be tough, Tshisekedi called on the notorious Russian mercenaries ‘Wagner’ to join the fray.
However, the regional framework for sustainable peace in eastern DRC has given the EACRF clear rules of engagement, where military action is a last resort. Even though Tshisekedi is aware of this, he is trying to pressurise the EACRF to jump to what is supposed to be the last resort, which is to engage in military action, specifically against the M23 movement. Tshisekedi’s dangerous discourse is undoubtedly aimed at collapsing the regional peace mechanism to escalate the conflict and give him the excuse to postpone elections scheduled for this year.
The EACRF is on the right track after presiding over the withdrawal of the M23 movement fighters from positions they control, and the framework is quite on course. But Tshisekedi’s blackmail now puts them in a dilemma because Tshisekedi has ordered his troops and the allies, including FDLR, to ignore the Luanda agreement and continue fighting. The regional framework provides for the engagement of all armed groups, but Tshisekedi wants them to only fight his war against M23! The entry of mercenaries into the chaos is a game changer, the final blow that could totally halt regional efforts.
