Despite international efforts to broker peace in the ongoing crisis in eastern DRC, the situation on the ground tells a different story.
Congolese ruler Felix Tshisekedi Tshilombo has embarked on yet another path of rearmament; this time acquiring drones from Turkey and China, and over 100 armoured vehicles from the UAE-based International Golden Group (IGG).
These moves signal that Tshisekedi is preparing for more warmongering.
Fools never learn. He will be clobbered, again.
Every military delivery, particularly the recent arms transferred through Burundi’s Bujumbura airport just 30 kilometres from Uvira, confirms that Tshisekedi is actively plotting war. The regime is moving military hardware into position near the front lines, while publicly claiming to support peace.
These contradictory actions make clear that Tshisekedi is betting on a battlefield resolution to the crisis, despite having failed at it repeatedly.
This buildup continues despite Tshisekedi’s catastrophic battlefield record. Since fighting resumed, ten ceasefires have been announced and violated. The Congolese army, backed by Burundian troops, local militias, and even genocidaires from the FDLR, the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, has repeatedly suffered defeats at the hands of the Congolese political-military movement M23/AFC.
Today, M23/AFC controls vast territories, including the key cities of Goma and Bukavu, and the region’s main logistical routes. They are an organised resistance movement with administrative structures, recruitment channels, and popular legitimacy in the territories they govern. That Tshisekedi continues to reject dialogue in favour of confrontation only deepens the sense that his regime is out of touch with realities on the ground.
The regime’s military apparatus has fallen apart. South African troops have withdrawn, European mercenaries have vanished, and peacekeepers are in the barracks. What’s left are underpaid Burundian units, genocidal forces of FDLR and Wazalendo militias, hastily recruited from local bandits. These forces are no match for a cohesive political-military movement like M23/AFC.
If Tshisekedi resumes large-scale fighting, the consequences will be even more disastrous for his regime. The M23/AFC is already in control of eastern Congo’s economic and logistical arteries. Any further resumption of war could allow them to advance toward Kisangani or even Greater Katanga. In such a scenario, Tshisekedi’s military delusions will permanently discredit him, and the M23/AFC will become the new power brokers in the DRC.