Burundi’s military leadership has assessed the situation in South Kivu and the outlook is grim: the country is fighting a losing war, and President Evariste Ndayishimiye aka Gen. Neva is being urged to order a retreat.
Army reports indicate morale among the troops is very low. Many units are trapped in the middle and highlands of Uvira, cut off from supplies and reinforcements. Multiple offensives to break these encirclements have failed. Efforts to outflank Twirwaneho forces in Fizi have also been thwarted.
Perhaps most importantly, Burundian forces coordinating joint operations with their allies FARDC (DR Congo army) as well as the Wazalendo terrorist militias (of which the genocidal FDLR) has become a nightmare. This is due to the impossibility of establishing a unified command.
Wazalendo and Imbonerakure militias, lacking professional combat experience, struggle to follow orders or hold positions, and they often fire indiscriminately, wasting ammunition and exposing their more experienced partners. In effect, the numerical advantage these militias bring is nullified by their disorderly, indisciplined ways.
Rivalries between Wazalendo factions further complicate matters. These mostly tribal skirmishes sometimes escalate, endangering entire defensive lines and giving M23 forces opportunities to strike decisive blows.
For Burundi’s security leaders, however, an even greater threat looms beyond the possible loss of South Kivu. Some defeats appear suspicious. Reports note entire platoons or companies disappearing or surrendering with little resistance. Both the military leadership and intelligence services warn that such incidents, increasingly frequent, resemble desertions more than battlefield losses.
Public opinion inside Burundi mirrors the views of exiled civil society, meaning it is growing increasingly hostile toward the country’s ongoing involvement in the conflict.
Communities along the border with eastern Congo (in Rukaramu, Gatumba, and Vugizo-Warubondo) live in constant fear as heavy bombardments approach. The continual movement of Burundian troops entering and
retreating from Congo does little to ease these fears.
Many in Burundian military ranks worry that if the M23 retaliates against repeated shelling and drone strikes, even Bujumbura International Airport could become a target.
In short, the combination of a difficult military position and domestic opposition to the war has prompted army leaders to advise the president to withdraw.
Very reliable, multiple sources describe tense exchanges between President Ndayishimiye aka Gen. Neva and his military advisers, the latter urging a pullout.
Beyond the immediate security threat posed by sharing a border with M23, there is the potential loss of access to valuable mineral resources and payments from Congo, which are used to maintain army support. That gives Gen. Neva sleepless nights.
After losing the Rubaya mines, Neva secured control over mineral smuggling networks in South Kivu, which he intends to retain. Moreover, the steep reduction of Burundi from AMISOM operations in Somalia, cutting its troop presence there from over 5,000 to 2,200, has fueled much discontent within the army. A lot of soldiers that were drawing a salary in Somalia now struggle to make ends meet.
While Tshisekedi’s payments temporarily quelled unrest, even these are now uncertain, as South Africa’s ongoing pullout from Lubumbashi demonstrates.
It is unclear how the current standoff will end, but the writing is on the wall: the battle of Uvira will not last long, and Burundi is very likely to lose.
The only question is how severe the loss will be: a single battle, or a potential collapse of the regime.