Congolese ruler Félix Tshisekedi has rejected any resumption of the Doha process to negotiate the remaining protocols outlined in the Agreement of Principles signed with the AFC/M23. He is determined to wage war until he gets everything he wants.
American and Qatari mediators should not allow this bellicose posture to go unchecked. They must understand that the revolutionaries will not permit Tshisekedi’s army to regroup and carry out further deadly attacks against their troops or civilians in the territories they control.
More importantly, mediators must recognize when and how to apply pressure, because this is a critical moment in the Congolese civil war. Not only is the regime’s military position at its weakest, but there is also little preventing the freedom fighters from striking decisively, marching on Katanga and cutting off Tshisekedi’s war machine from its financial lifeline.
There are moments when diplomatic niceties serve no useful purpose.
In fact, the condemnation of the AFC/M23’s salvatory advance into South Kivu, which allowed Banyamulenge communities to breathe a sigh of relief after months of a deliberate blockade intended to starve them into annihilation, has produced the opposite effect of what may have been intended. If the objective was to de-escalate tensions, it has failed to compel the Tshisekedi regime to realistically assess its position.
Tshisekedi and his inner circle now believe they can obtain everything they want through U.S. diplomatic backing.
This is a serious miscalculation. As M23 President Bertrand Bisimwa once said, “This is the only country we’ve got.” It is clear that the AFC/M23 will not abandon the people who rely on it for protection. Peaceful protesters in the streets of liberated cities have made their position unmistakably clear: they do not want the FARDC and its allied genocidal militias to return. Any discussion of withdrawal that would endanger civilians is therefore out of the question.
Yet Tshisekedi still believes he can recover through international pressure what he lost as a result of his ill-fated military offensive to retake Bukavu and Goma by force. Perhaps it is time for external actors to step aside and allow Congolese actors to resolve this conflict using their own means.
Congolese now possess the capacity to end the violence and impose peace. The Congolese Revolutionary Army (ARC) has the ability to end the war. The principal obstacle remains interference from external actors who have failed to respond to the people’s demand for security.
As citizens of Uvira have said, if Americans cannot deploy troops to protect them, then they should let the AFC/M23 do so. Tshisekedi has unmistakably chosen perpetual war. He must be forced back to reason or forced from office. If it will not be the Americans, then the Congolese people themselves will do it.