The recent pass-out of 7,500 new commandos by the ARC – the Revolutionary Army of the Congo River Alliance – is another reminder that the Tshisekedi regime lost this war a long time ago.
The fighting still going on in some parts of the country is only an attempt by Kinshasa to postpone an unavoidable reckoning with a bitter truth.
That truth became undeniable on 27 January 2025, the day Goma was liberated. Tshisekedi himself understood the scale of the disaster as he spoke with his newly appointed Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant-General Jules Banza Mwilambwe. The facts were brutal: over 60 per cent of FARDC armament and ammunition had been captured. As ARC Chief of Staff General Makenga later stated, the revolutionaries had secured enough matériel to fight for five years without resupply.
Worse still, thousands of FARDC soldiers were captured; others defected. Many of those now fight in ARC ranks. Bukavu soon fell without a fight. SADC forces, reduced to spectators, were confined to their bases—at the mercy of the very freedom fighters they had come to crush—before packing up and leaving in humiliation.
Humbled, Tshisekedi briefly leaned toward peace. He approached Qataris and Americans to mediate. But his Belgian handlers refused to concede defeat. They promised advanced equipment, instructors, military advisors, and cash—on one condition: Burundi would deploy massively to replace the collapsed SADC front. Tshisekedi’s role was simple: stall negotiations until a “new army” could be rebuilt.
What they failed to account for was the ARC’s ability to generate disciplined, combat-ready manpower at scale. Over 7,000 fighters joined in September 2025. Another 9,350 followed in October. Now, 7,500 more have graduated. These are only the pass-outs shown publicly. Many others fighters completed training quietly and were deployed through a process that began as early as 2022. From a movement once expected to disarm and enter cantonment, the ARC is now possibly approaching a force of 60,000.
In their path stand Burundian troops—redeployed in force to Fizi after a rout in Uvira—leading attacks on Banyamulenge villages and relying on Lake Tanganyika for supply. If they fall, Tshisekedi will be left with an army he clearly does not trust, propped up only by external pressure already keeping his regime on life support.
But there is a limit to what external actors, however powerful and influential, can do against a people fighting to survive, and determined to bring their tormentors to justice. Moreover, Tshisekedi and his corrupt cabal will not rebuild a credible fighting force fast enough to stop the AFC/M23 advance. So, unless he chooses peace, even foreign backers will not be able to save him.
He should have known better. The war was lost in Goma.