As of now, Washington’s second great diplomatic blunder has ensured further escalation in the Great Lakes – that is, after it announced sanctions of the RDF and some senior officers of the RDF.
By sanctioning Rwanda and reinforcing the misleading narrative that this conflict is primarily a war between two states, it has enabled the Tshisekedi regime to avoid its core obligation: resolving issues with its principal adversary, the AFC/M23.
Instead, Kinshasa continues to pursue a military solution where none exists.
The first blunder was urging the AFC/M23 to withdraw from Uvira without securing firm guarantees that Kinshasa would return to Doha to negotiate in good faith. As many observers warned, the withdrawal opened a dangerous vacuum.
Violence against the Banyamulenge community in Uvira spiraled out of control, forcing nearly the entire population to flee — either to Minembwe or northward into M23-controlled areas.
Burundi then felt emboldened to reenter the conflict, despite prior commitments to de-escalate. Burundian commanders are now leading assaults on Minembwe, the last refuge of the Banyamulenge, resulting in civilian deaths, cattle slaughtered, and homes burned.
Mercenaries have joined the offensive, conducting deadly drone strikes. Alongside them operate Wazalendo militias and the FDLR.
In short, the Kinshasa coalition was already on the offensive, openly violating ceasefires and disregarding commitments made in Doha and Washington.
Now Washington has effectively signaled to Tshisekedi that he may continue on this path — and predictably, he appears to have taken that message to heart.
If Washington’s objective was de-escalation, American actions contradict that aim. The situation has been destabilized further, and reversing course will be difficult.
Kinshasa and its allies are preparing more violent offensives; the AFC/M23 will respond in defense of the communities under its protection.
This escalation could have been avoided had Washington paused to reflect before acting. Durable peace requires political courage, not symbolic pressure that hardens positions and fuels Tshisekedi’s illusions of military victory.