AFC/M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka has warned mercenaries hired by Tshisekedi that the “Goma scenario” — where captured mercenaries were handed over to Rwanda and safely repatriated via Kigali International Airport — will not be repeated. This time, there is no guarantee of safe return, especially as these mercenaries are accused of massacring Congolese and supporting a genocidal coalition.
Although Kanyuka did not explicitly mention it this time, his warning also applies to Burundian troops who have been carrying out ground attacks on Banyamulenge villages and Twirwaneho positions. Burundi’s airport has become a key military hub, receiving reinforcements flown in by Kinshasa before their redeployment to Uvira. It is also being used to launch drone attacks. All this takes place as M23 has vowed to neutralise the sources of attacks against both its positions and the civilian population under its administration.
Its warnings should therefore be taken seriously, for several reasons.
The first reason is the absence of MONUSCO and SADC troops on the South Kivu battlefield. This means the restraint M23 showed during the battle for Goma is unlikely to be repeated. MONUSCO and SADC, one mandated by the UN and the other by a regional bloc, are international actors.
While M23 would not shy away from engaging them if necessary, it has shown caution in order to avoid antagonising too many international players at once. No such restraint is expected against mercenaries or Burundian troops.
The second reason is the deep divisions within the FARDC. Soldiers who have gone months without pay are fighting alongside reinforcements from Kasai who are reportedly receiving $500 per month. This gulf has become irreparable. Many FARDC fighters are now defecting to the AFC/M23, with Bertrand Bisimwa even inviting journalists to visit the Rumangabo training camp and witness this phenomenon. Others, less bold, are simply waiting for the right chance to disappear, leaving Burundian soldiers and mercenary colleagues to fight on alone.
Unlike mercenaries, Burundian troops at least have their own country to retreat to. But for the mercenaries, who have no right to be in Congo and enjoy no protection under the laws of war, there will be no way out.