In recent days, persistent speculations have circulated that former President Joseph Kabila, and former CNDP leader General Laurent Nkunda may be preparing to join the Congo River Alliance (AFC/M23). Though unconfirmed, their emergence has sent shockwaves through political, military, and diplomatic circles alike.
If true, this would not be a minor realignment. It would mark one of the most consequential shifts in the current confrontation in eastern Congo, and potentially its most destabilizing for the Tshisekedi regime.
The first impact would be felt on the military front. Both men retain deep, often underestimated influence within the Congolese military establishment.
Joseph Kabila ruled the country for nearly two decades; a large portion of today’s senior officers built their careers under his command. Laurent Nkunda, despite years of political silence, remains a reference point within former CNDP networks and among seasoned combatants who still view him as a disciplined and capable commander.
A Kabila–Nkunda alignment with the AFC/M23 would not merely add fighters, it could trigger defections, reorganize loyalties, and fundamentally alter the balance of power on the ground.
The diplomatic consequences would be no less disruptive (for the Tshisekedi regime). International actors — including Belgium, the United States, and regional partners — have largely reduced the crisis to a narrow interstate and security narrative.
In that framing, eastern Congo is portrayed as a battlefield between Rwanda and the DRC, or as a problem of armed groups confined to the Kivus.
The entry of Kabila and Nkunda would shatter that storyline.
Their involvement would signal that the conflict is not peripheral, nor purely regional, but rooted in unresolved national political fractures. Such a development would force foreign capitals to rethink their positions, reconsider mediation formats, and confront a reality they have long tried to avoid: Congo’s crisis is fundamentally internal.
The most far-reaching effects, however, may unfold inside the country itself. Joseph Kabila continues to enjoy significant loyalty across vast parts of the DRC, particularly in Katanga his traditional stronghold. His return to the political battlefield could extend AFC/M23’s appeal far beyond North and South Kivu, transforming it from a regional force into a movement with national reach.
Ultimately, the true power of such an alliance would lie not only in arms, but in legitimacy. Kabila and Nkunda both possess enduring charisma, deep networks, and symbolic weight within Congolese society and the military establishment. Their alignment would push the confrontation into an entirely new phase — one no longer resembling a localized insurgency, but a nationwide political rupture.
In a conflict where perception often moves faster than bullets, even the possibility of such a convergence is already reshaping political and military calculations — in Kinshasa, in the region, and far beyond.
Tshilombo isn’t sleeping easy.