Congolese ruler Felix Tshisekedi may have hoped that sidestepping the Doha process would somehow get international actors to pressure the AFC/M23 to withdraw from territory they’ve already liberated. That hope is collapsing before his eyes.
First, the U.S. forced Tshisekedi to sign the Operational Order (OPORD) advancing the CONOPS, which is the agreed plan to neutralize the FDLR. This means that even as he ranted in an empty UN chamber that “Rwanda must withdraw its troops before peace could happen” (a troop presence only alleged by the way), he was signing off on Rwanda’s deployment as part of joint operations against the genocidal forces he integrated into his own army.
His UN theatrics were for a gullible audience, and that audience is about to get a rude awakening.
Then came the striking statement from Vivian Van de Perre, UN Deputy SRSG for Protection and Operations, MONUSCO. She made it clear: the crisis is both internal and regional. Translation for Tshisekedists: Kinshasa cannot negotiate solely with Rwanda; it must also negotiate with the M23/AFC.
To drive the point home, she reminded everyone that there is no military solution, pointing out that the last such attempt failed, and that it’s time for a political settlement.
So while Tshisekedi screamed that UN Resolution 2773 must force the rebels out of Goma and Bukavu, the UN is signaling in no uncertain terms: this will be negotiated, and if he insists on military action, he’ll be on his own, with no MONUSCO support.
The pressure on Tshisekedi is so intense that he paid millions of dollars to U.S. lobbyists for a one-on-one meeting with Trump.
Whether he will actually get the meeting remains to be seen, and sources close to the presidency are growing desperate that he won’t be able to shift the U.S’s position.
He might be tempted to ignore the warning signs and proceed with his offensive to retake Goma and Bukavu, but this time he risks exhausting the patience of mediators and the international community. And if that happens, the rebels are ready to punish his foolishness.
As AFC/M23 Coordinator Corneille Nangaa made clear: liberation is coming to Uvira, Walikale, Ituri, and beyond. In short, it’s coming to all of Congo.
Tshisekedi’s next misstep could very well be his last.