Listen to Congolese ruler Félix Tshisekedi’s recent speeches and you might think he’s in control, winning on the ground and in diplomacy, while the AFC/M23 revolutionaries are desperate to negotiate with him. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The AFC/M23 doesn’t need Tshisekedi. In fact, they might refuse to meet with him or members of his government altogether. Why would they?
Most of the mines Tshisekedi hopes to offer the Americans are in North and South Kivu, now largely under AFC/M23 control. As the movement’s coordinator Corneille Nangaa told CNN, “Tshisekedi has no mines to offer President Trump. He’s a crook.”
The major mines in Katanga are operated by Chinese companies. The informal sites, meanwhile, are controlled by cobalt-looting cartels that pull in 2 billion dollars from illegal operations, reportedly paying a stipend to Tshisekedi’s clan, according to Belgian and French outlets La Libre and Africa Intelligence.
So if Tshisekedi wants a mineral deal with the Americans, he’ll have to make peace with Nangaa’s movement, which controls most of the mines he wishes to auction for his own political survival.
Second, it’s also simply better to do business in AFC/M23 territory. Investors see clean streets in Goma and Bukavu, a sense of safety, gradual restoration of the rule of law, new judicial appointments, a professional ARC army, disciplined police, and new roads and infrastructure. This is the infrastructure AFC/M23 can show investors to prove liberated areas are the safest, most reliable places to invest in the DRC.
Meanwhile, government-held areas are insecure and risky, usually run by Kinshasa-allied militias who engage in all kinds of criminal acts. Why would serious investors deal with Kinshasa when its opponents have proven trustworthy?
Today, AFC/M23 liberated territory looks like an autonomous region. It has its own visa stamps, army, justice system, and banking sector. With 17,000 new recruits having graduated in past two weeks, the freedom fighters are signaling their intention to march on Kinshasa.
Their message to investors: Why sign deals with a regime that might not even be in power in a few months?