The regime of Felix Tshisekedi in Kinshasa is imploding, and the cracks are widening by the day.
In Minembwe, what was meant to be a show of military dominance has ended in humiliation. A coalition of FARDC, FNDB, Wazalendo, FDLR, and foreign mercenaries threw everything at the frontline – drones, relentless bombardments, and waves of assaults. But it has failed spectacularly.
They lost positions around “Point Zero”, a strategic zone they never truly controlled. Kinshasa’s forces, far from demonstrating strength, have exposed their incompetence and inability to project power, even with overwhelming aerial firepower.
Meanwhile, AFC/M23 has moved decisively to fortify the Ruzizi Plain, shutting down any Burundian ambitions to reclaim the area. This is not just a tactical maneuver; it’s a signal that the AFC/M23 intends to isolate Kinshasa from its regional allies and assert control over Congo’s eastern borderlands.
The diplomatic front is equally disastrous for Tshilombo. Sanctions against Rwanda that the Tshisekedi regime demanded (like petulant little children) after the fall of Uvira have not happened. Instead, Massad Boulos, President Trump’s senior advisor on Africa, publicly instructed Kinshasa to halt drone attacks on civilians and honor the Doha ceasefire. UN Secretary-General António Guterres further indicated that sanctions are not even in discussion at the Security Council.
In short, all indications are that Kinshasa’s credibility on the international stage is in free fall; its calls for punitive measures are ignored while foreign voices lecture it on basic compliance with peace agreements.
Adding further humiliation, MONUSCO is reportedly considering deploying troops in Uvira city, directly alongside FARDC forces. This is deeply embarrassing: Kinshasa is not trusted to protect its own civilians. In fact, it is implicitly accused of targeting the Banyamulenge community. The message could not be clearer—Tshisekedi’s army is incapable; worse, it is dangerous for civilians.
If the trend continues, Tshisekedi’s grip on power will unravel as his extremist base turns against him for his many failures. Military setbacks, diplomatic snubs, and the erosion of local and regional authority paint a grim picture.
A regime that promised stability is now floundering, exposed, and on the verge of collapse.