Congolese ruler Felix Tshisekedi’s fantasies of a mineral-for-security deal has blown up in his face.
US President Donald Trump didn’t send U.S. troops to fight M23 for Tshisekedi, as the latter wished. Instead, Washington told (the Southern African bloc) SADC to step back, then urged Tshisekedi to neutralize the FDLR. Further the US now wants Kinshasa to sign a peace agreement with the M23/AFC Movement.
In short, Kinshasa’s war diplomacy is unraveling, even as Tshisekedi launches yet another offensive in his futile attempts to retake Bukavu and Goma. In this reckless gamble, he’s leaning on the FDLR, even if it means spitting on the peace efforts of both Trump and the Emir of Qatar.
Government spokesperson Muyaya tried to downplay Tshisekedi’s combative speech, cherry-picking excerpts to make it seem as if Congo’s president still supported the Washington and Doha peace processes. It was pointless.
Tshisekedi left no doubt: Congo does not need external mediation, and he will never negotiate with armed puppets of foreign powers—a thinly veiled reference to M23, which he consistently frames as an extension of the Rwandan army.
By Muyaya’s own logic, who just days ago insisted that the implementation of Trump’s peace deal depends on the success of the Doha process, Tshisekedi has effectively spat in Trump’s face. With no Doha, there will be no Washington peace deal, only another war.
And this is a war Tshisekedi knows he cannot win without the FDLR, conservatively estimated at 10,000 fighters by RDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Rwivanga. They are reinforced by 24,000 Burundian troops and six Blackwater mercenary companies, hired by Erik Prince, manning drones from Bujumbura, where Tshisekedi’s coalition has established yet another rear base. The region braces for conflict as Tshisekedi once again rejects mediation and doubles down on the path of war.
Will Washington and Doha respond? Will the Trump administration follow through and sanction these spoilers of peace? That remains to be seen.
Failure to hold Tshisekedi accountable risks emboldening a genocidal coalition.